About the model

CricketPredict estimates men's international-format cricket win probability from real completed matches. The current build uses Cricsheet CSV2 archives for Test, ODI and T20I match metadata, normalized into a match-level history and walked strictly in date order.

Ratings

Each team carries a separate Elo rating for Test, ODI and T20I cricket. Before each historical match, the site records the pre-match probability; after the result, it updates the two teams and applies a small tuned cross-format carryover. Parameters are selected by a bounded grid search over K-factor, home adjustment, cross-format carryover and probability temperature.

What is not done yet

Fixture ingestion is not wired, so the homepage does not publish fake upcoming forecasts. ICC ranking comparison and player/lineup features are also future work. Current pages show model ratings, recent completed-match probabilities and chronological backtest diagnostics only.

Data

Data comes from Cricsheet, an open ball-by-ball cricket archive. This repository commits normalized match-level results rather than downloaded archives.

These are model probabilities for entertainment and analysis, not betting advice.