Cricket forecasts from real match history

Chronological Elo ratings for men's Test, ODI and T20I cricket from Cricsheet match metadata. Upcoming fixture ingest is not wired yet, so this page shows latest model state and the most recent completed-match probabilities instead of pretending to have live forecasts.

Holdout matches
1676
Log loss
0.616
Brier
0.212
Accuracy
65.4%

Recent completed matches

DateFormatMatchPre-match P(home/listed first)Result
2026-06-02T20China vs Malaysia12.3%Malaysia
2026-06-02T20Mozambique vs Lesotho70.5%Mozambique
2026-06-02ODIAustralia vs Pakistan51.2%Australia
2026-06-01T20Bahrain vs Hong Kong66.6%Hong Kong
2026-06-01T20Oman vs Singapore66.4%Oman
2026-05-31T20Nepal vs China86.4%Nepal

Top TEST ratings

  1. 1. Australia1751
  2. 2. South Africa1696
  3. 3. New Zealand1644

Top ODI ratings

  1. 1. India1744
  2. 2. New Zealand1735
  3. 3. Australia1668

Top T20 ratings

  1. 1. India1936
  2. 2. England1825
  3. 3. Uganda1808